Retail likes a calendar because it makes demand look manageable, according to The Golden Guide 2026.
Christmas sits in one box, Black Friday has another and back-to-school gets its few weeks. Fashion waits on the weather and gifting retailers know the obvious dates. Yet customers have become less cooperative.
The pattern changes by sector. Footwear may build around back-to-school, while gifting businesses deal with occasions spread throughout the year. Fashion can have months of planning rearranged by a spell of unexpected heat.
Promotional events add another layer, which Cegid’s strategic customer success manager Jack Newman says has left retailers in a “never-ending peak cycle of planning for the next peak event that’s on the horizon”.
The trading figures back him up. BRC-KPMG data showed total retail sales falling 3 per cent year on year in April before jumping 3.7 per cent in May as warmer weather drove clothing, footwear and electrical demand. Growth then eased to 1.9 per cent in June.
Retailers already know weather moves demand. The bigger point is how little use an annual average can be when stock, media and labour decisions have to be made week by week.
Cardlytics sees a longer-term shift underneath those short movements. Its State of Spend research describes the emergence of a “controlled consumer” who continues to buy but applies more scrutiny to price, convenience and perceived quality.
The company’s Q1 work found that value-seeking had started before Christmas was finished, with shoppers trading down and switching formats before the traditional January sales period.
The H1 figures are more revealing than another consumer-confidence survey. Cardlytics found nonessential retail transactions rose 6.09 per cent in the first half while average basket value fell 4.15 per cent. Hospitality transactions fell 3.83 per cent even though spending remained positive, helped by higher average ticket values.
A rising sales number clearly does not tell you enough. One retailer can grow because more customers are arriving, another can grow because the people who remain are paying more. A third can increase transactions while promotions reduce the value of each basket.
The category split makes broad statements about ‘the consumer’ even less useful. Cardlytics found make-up and beauty spend grew 8 per cent in 2025, while luxury and designer fashion fell 8 per cent. Sporting goods and athleisure declined 6 per cent as transactions dropped around 7 per cent, while books grew 9 per cent.
Consumers have not drawn a single line through everything they consider non-essential. A large furniture purchase can wait while a smaller beauty purchase survives. Someone can spend less eating out and protect a holiday.
Deloitte’s research found exactly that kind of selectivity. Although discretionary spending fell sharply in Q1, holiday budgets remained comparatively protected while big-ticket purchases such as cars, furniture and major appliances stayed subdued.
Last Christmas also showed how value and indulgence can coexist. Kantar’s £13.8 billion grocery month came with heavy promotional use, but premium own-label grew 9 per cent and took 7.5 per cent of grocery sales. Discounters simultaneously recorded their biggest ever Christmas share at 16.8 per cent.
That tells retailers rather more than another prediction that shoppers will ‘seek value’. Value can mean the lowest price. It can also mean deciding that a better version of something is worth protecting while cuts are made elsewhere.
PwC expects the same unevenness to define peak season in 2026. Its retail outlook argues that market growth will not be enough to cover cost growth for many retailers and says businesses need to concentrate investment where there is genuine customer and category headroom.
The traditional six or eight-week peak remains useful for operations. It is less convincing as a description of customer behaviour. People compare products, decide what can wait and identify the brands they are willing to consider long before the official campaign starts.
By November, part of the battle has already happened.
This is an excerpt from the recently published Golden Guide 2026. Download the full version for a look at how shoppers economise and treat themselves at the same time and why this changes the maths on every peak sale.
Photo by Andy Holmes on Unsplash
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